Yesterday’s Summary at the bottom.
OBAD
1 14.30 Southwell Terrierman HRP Score 75
Back to the dreaded hurdles! Terrierman is a clear favourite on this one at virtually Evens. The next horse is showing at 9/2. They are paying out on 3 places but the odds for the place are low. It also has a great HRP score.
My choice – WIN
TRIPLER
1 13.10 Punchestown Dlauro HRP Score 42
Dlauro is showing as favourite but there is a horse really close behind in the betting. There are however, 24 runners AND it’s a 2 mile jump race. They are paying out on 4 places for this race so although it’s the coward’s option, my objective is to get a winner & build up my Bank. I am tending towards a Split for these reasons.
My choice – SPLIT
2 14.20 Sedgefield Induno HRP Score 40
Another 2 mile hurdle but only 7 runners. Induno is the favourite but there are a few other runners not far behind. They are paying out on 2 places and the place odds aren’t bad. So with only 7 runners, 2 place payout, 2 miles, hurdles and decent-ish odds, I am going again for a Split bet.
My Choice – SPLIT
3 14.30 Southwell Terrierman HRP Score 75
See OBAD above. The only drawback is that this race follows Race 2 very closely, so keep your wits about you and stay calm & focussed before placing your bet.
My choice – WIN
All I am trying to do is make a small profit every day and grow my Bank to make life a little more comfortable. As I always say, my daily target is 2.5%, so if I hit it on Race 1, I will stop that particular system for the day.
The choice is yours as to whether or not you feel “It’s your day” and want to carry on. If you work out your Bank doubling every month by sticking at 2.5% daily, you will have a really healthy Bank after 6 months. That’s my attitude.
If you are still betting on Race 3, know beforehand what you are going for as there isn’t much time between the 2 races. Don’t panic but be calm and check everything before submitting your bet.
TRIPLER 10% RATCHET
Straight 10% of Bank as the stake. Target for the day as always, is to win 2.5% of my Starting Bank. It’s your money so it’s your choice as to whether you want to go for all 3. I have done in the past & come a cropper. But it’s your choice.
Good luck guys.
Summary – Monday 25th November 2019
OBAD
1 12.45 Musselburgh Timetochill
My choice – WIN
A fairly simple win. Having said that, most of the others seemed to be out on a Monday afternoon stroll. Because of my stake, I achieved a profit of 2.09%. This is below my target of 2.5% but I’m not arguing. Any profit is good in my books.
TRIPLER
1 12.45 Musselburgh Timetochill HRP Score 67 See OBAD above
Timetochill won. The stake I am on using Tripler meant that because of the win, I got a return of 3.32%. Beat my target so JOB DONE and no more betting for me on this system
2 13.30 Kempton Thomas Darby HRP Score 55
My Choice – WIN
A good job I stopped after Race 1. Thomas Darby made a mistake and never recovered sufficiently, coming in 3rd. My WIN selection would have lost.
This simply reinforced my line of thinking that if I hit my target, I STOP betting for the day. Some of you may have carried on but I’m more than happy to plod along with my 2.5% target.
3 18.00 Chelmsford Secret Smile HRP Score 50
My choice – SPLIT
I don’t know the result of this race as it’s 5.45PM & I have done all my betting for the day.
As always, all I am trying to do is make a small profit every day, grow my Bank and make life a little more comfortable. My daily target is 2.5%, so if I hit it on Race 1, I will stop that particular system for the day.
The choice is yours as to whether or not you feel “It’s your day” and want to carry on. If you work out your Bank doubling every month by sticking at 2.5% daily, you will have a really healthy Bank after 6 months. That’s my attitude.
TRIPLER 10% RATCHET
Straight 10% of Bank as the stake. Target for the day as always, is to win 2.5% of my day’s Starting Bank. It’s your money so it’s your choice as to whether you want to go for all 3. I have done in the past & come a cropper. But it’s your choice.
Race 1 was at very low odds. I plumped to bet on this even though the reward was small. The horse won me a small profit.
Race 2 was at even lower odds. I did go for the Place Bet and it came in 3rd. Again, another small profit.
Total profit from the 2 races was 3.22%, so again, JOB DONE. No bet on the 3rd race for me.
3 systems, 3 winning results. A good day.
Dr Rob, you have a very wise way of thinking and I’m totally with you and your method. Please can you help me with my maths though? I don’t know how to work out what my point value is each day to get a 2.5% profit. Do I bet 10% of my bank as my point value for the day?
What do you mean by split bet?
Gary.
If you look on “Members” – “Members’ Home Page”, scroll down to the bottom & click the “Platinum Staking Plan” This should go into full detail.
Regarding the Tripler Ratchet System, it’s a flat 10% of your Bank. (I have both systems separate so I can monitor the results.)
One member is very cautious – understandably so – and is using a flat 5% stake. This is fine. It’s whatever you’re comfy with.
Hi Dr Rob, Thanks for your answer but I don’t do the ratchet system only the OBAD and and the Tripler so don’t fully understand how much to bet each point on those two?
Hi Gary. The Platinum Staking Plan recommends you divide your Starting Bank into 100 points. eg £100 = 100 points. PSP recommends
100pts Recommended Bank
Place 2pts Win first selection
If a loser, increase stake by 1pt
After a Win at Evens or above, decrease by 2pts
After a Win at 10/11 to 8/11 decrease by 1pt
After a win at 4/6 or shorter, keep on same stake next bet
If Place odds are 1.9 or above, place 3pts Place & 1pt Win
Please see – https://www.thehorseracepredictor.com/daily-use/hrp-platinum-staking-plan-working-it-manually/
What do you mean by split bet?
Hi Scott.
I do a Split Bet if I’m unconvinced the chosen selection isn’t going to win outright. I split my stake 25/75. 25% goes on the horse To Win & 75% goes on the horse “To Place.” If you find the race on Betfair, on the left hand side it will show Win & below it will say Place. When you have done your 25% Win bet, click Place. It will tell you how many horses they will pay out on as well.
Hi Dr.Rob, Was thinking of doing the rachet system placing 10% of a bank of the highest score/the 1 bet a day selection and the other 2 horses 5% on each, would you say this approach is better than just 5% on each?
Also what about doing 5% and increasing to 10% after a losing bet to recover funds faster?
Is there any way of testing this on past results and seeing if this works?
Thanks
Wow Dave.
I failed “O” level maths at school. This would need some serious calculating.
A suggestion may be to “Paper Trade” for a week. By that, I mean try all 3 systems without actually betting any real money – Tripler 10% flat stake, then your other 2 options.
Keep records for each and you should have fairly good results from which to choose which is best for you.