A SMALL PROFIT IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN A SMALL LOSS.
LATEST – LUDLOW ABANDONED.
Hastily re-arranged to due Ludlow abandonment
Today’s Bets – Wednesday 4th December 2019
OBAD
13.55 Haydock Champagne Mystery. HRP Score 55. Only 4 runners. If I did a split bet, using Gav’s Spreadsheet, because of the odds, I would make a small profit if it comes 2nd & a “Job Done” if it wins. My choice – Split
TRIPLER
13.55 Haydock Champagne Mystery. HRP Score 55. Only 4 runners. If I did a split bet, using Gav’s Spreadsheet, because of the odds, I would make a small profit if it comes 2nd & a “Job Done” if it wins. My choice – Split
14.25 Haydock Sunny Express. HRP Score 45. Exactly the same as the above. If it comes 2nd, & Race 1 came 2nd, I will still hit my target for the day. My choice – Split
17.40 Kempton Loxley. HRP Score 40. I am chickening out until I know the results of the earlier races. I know it’s the cowards’ option, but the sole purpose of me betting on horses, which I know bugger all about, is to win money. I don’t really care if it’s a huge win or a small win. Every win is good enough for me. My choice – Wait for the result of Race 1 then do a calculation to see if Win or Split.
TRIPLER 10% RATCHET
Same procedure as always: 10% of Bank for each selection. I know some of you guys put all the bets on at the same time. Personally, I wait for the result of the 1st race before either hitting my target & stopping for the day or continue to the next race to try & get my 2.5%.
Good luck.
Summary – Tuesday 3rd December 2019
OBAD
14.35 Southwell Boss Man Fred HRP Score 68 My choice – WIN Ran well but then made a bad mistake & fell back. Rallied, ran really strongly & pulled away for a great win. OBAD got me my 1st winner, albeit slightly under my 2.5% target. Who gives a monkeys because I still won. A win of any sorts trumps a loss.
TRIPLER
13.15 Lingfield Early Morning Rain HRP Score 52 My choice – Win Our clear favourite & won with ease.
14.35 Southwell Boss Man Fred HRP Score 68 My choice – Win Ran well but then made a bad mistake & fell back. Rallied, ran really strongly & pulled away for a great win.
19.15 Wolverhampton Ember’s Choice HRP Score 50 My choice – Wait for results of Races 1 & 2. Followed the leaders & let them get a bit knackered. Just like Mo Farrah! Had a strong finish to end up a deserved winner.
Tripler gave me a winner in the very 1st race. I got odds of 1.68. As soon as I clicked the drop down box on Gav’s spreadsheet & selected the result as WIN, the magic words “Job Done” flashed up. Means I hit my 2.5% target on Race 1 so no more bets for me on Tripler.
TRIPLER 10% RATCHET
Same procedure as always: 10% of Bank for each selection. Today was a bit trickier. Race 1 got me a winner, but at very low odds so I didn’t hit my target. The odds for Boss Man Fred in Race 2 were even lower. I calculated that if the horse placed, my target would still not be hit. It was a 3 mile race with the dreaded jumps. What if I went ahead with the bet & the horse came a cropper & fell at the last fence? Stake gone all for the sake of a tiny potential profit. I looked at the early odds on Race 3 and they were very good. The odds at the time were 1.78 for the place. I decided it wasn’t worth risking a bet on Race 2 so I left it out & opted to put my 10% on Ember’s Glow to place. The bugger only went and won!
So, all in all, a fabulous day. OBAD gave me a profit, albeit below my target. Tripler beat my target on Race 1, generating a 2.72% profit. No more bets on Tripler. Tripler Ratchet proved awesome. The excellent odds on Ember’s Glow gave me a profit on Ratchet of 8.6%.
Oh for every day to be like this! Sure beats the hell out of the 0.01% a YEAR my Bank are offering on their Savings Accounts. I know it’s Christmas fellas but talk about Scrooge!
I hope you all had a profitable day.
As an aside, I don’t spend much time with my son since he got married & every year, he books a day off work & we go tramping round the streets of Manchester looking at the tat on offer at the Christmas markets. McDonald’s sausage breakfast, Bratwurst in the markets, a mug of chocolate & a couple of pints of Joseph Holts’ finest bitter. Marks & Sparks Belgian choccies for the wife. Always a great day.
Basically, I’m out all day on Thursday so sadly, no betting for me.
I would really love to see some positive posts telling me how you went on & if you had a different strategy/ies.
Good luck guys.
Absolutely marvellous post.
Hey Doc,
Just to say that I’m here quietly watching each day and learning what I can in the background. I massively appreciate you taking the time to do what you do as you clearly don’t have to and it’s very generous of you. It’s SO useful to us beginners.
I hope you have a top day today with your son!
Jeremy
Much appreciated Jeremy.
Hi Dr Rob,
Loved reading ur post as always – fun and of course informative! great insight… and so helpful. im basically following along as u go – just the tripler – but the fact u have 3 separate banks got me thinking… actually a post Gav wrote once about using our capital wisely and running a couple or even a few systems alongside each other. so that said – will go for the place system for the tripler. i used to chuck all the bets on before ,but now, STOP to target = double the bank! thanks Rob.
i cant believe the interest rates either! awful. but look at us here!
hope u have a grand day out 🙂
Thanks Baljit. All I try to do is interpret what the HRP selections come up with.
With Ludlow abandoned, OBAD and Tripler above has changed. OBAD is now Champagne Mystery, which does have a write up above. 1425 Haydock – Sunny Express, I am going split here as this selection is not the favourite. 1740 Kempton – Loxley, hopefully done by this race, currently a narrow favourite. I’ll split if either Loxley not the favourite or the gap to 2nd favourite remains narrow.
Good stuff Arthur. Sunny Express kicked us in the whatsits though.