Analysis:
Most days you get two or three potential bets, and I simply open up Show Races and check over the forecast odds for the two horses in question.
The forecast favourite and the forecast 2nd favourite.
We are looking for our Top Rated selections quoted at the ‘odds sweet spot’ of 8/11 to 5/4 and which have a specific, minimum gap to the 2nd quoted favourite.
If multiple selections we first go to the shortest quoted of the group.
Example: February 23rd
I have entered into Bet Builder Forecast Odds: 1.73 to 2.25
Example 1: There are two qualifiers Ramilles and Imagine.
We click on Show Race in the right hand column.
Ramilles 2nd favourite was quoted at 2/1 or 3 and that is too small a gap.
Example 2: But Imagine had the required gap with the 2nd favourite quoted at 5.5 or 9/2.
If you go to Example 1 you can see that the next shortest quoted was Dolphin Square at 1.8 in 16:35 Doncaster.
SUMMARY
This tactic seeks just one bet a day (very rarely two qualifiers) and uses the following rules:
- Must be HRP Top Rated
- Forecast between 1.73 and 2.25
- Must have minimum forecast odds of 2nd Favourite 3/1 (4)
Most days this will give you the bet, but if not – do the following:
- HRP Top Rated
- Forecast between 2.38 and 2.5
- Must have minimum forecast odds of 2nd Favourite 7/2 (4.5)
If still no qualifying bet:
- HRP Top Rated
- Forecast between 2.63 and 2.75
- Must have minimum forecast odds of 2nd Favourite 4/1 (5)
Daily Maximum Staking
- Stake 2pt on the first bet
- If a debit, increase to 3pts
- If a winner over the odds of 1.73 return to 2pt
- If a winner under the odds of 1.73 stay on 2pts
- Increase stake on losing bets by 1pt
- If a winner over 2 reduce stake by 2pts as long as a profit is obtained on the sequence.
- Otherwise reduce by 1pt
Gav, I have just looked at todays selections and found the 15:10 at Wincanton should show 15:55. Best Regards Keith